Disappearing Canadian permafrost has international implications

Report estimate that if only 10 per cent of the permafrost melted, this could lead to the release of an additional 80 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent into the atmosphere. This would equate to about 0.7 degrees Celsius of global warming.

February 18, 2009 - The amount of carbon locked away in frozen soils in the far Northern Hemisphere is double previous estimates and rapid melting could accelerate global warming, a study released this past July.

This month Dr. Payette, a scientist specializing in Canadian permafrost, reported that its retreat northward in the area around Canada's James Bay is a sign of a decades-long regional warming trend.

What is Permafrost?

Large areas of northern Russia, Canada, Nordic countries and the U.S. state of Alaska have deep layers of frozen soil near the surface called permafrost.

Global warming has already triggered rapid melting of the permafrost in some areas, releasing powerful greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.

As the world gets warmer, more of these gases are predicted to be released and could trigger a tipping point in which huge amounts of the gases flood the atmosphere, rapidly driving up temperatures, scientists say.

The southern edge of permafrost in the James Bay area has moved about 80 miles north of where it was 50 years ago, Serge Payette of Laval University in Quebec City said in a telephone interview.

It's a sign that warming is taking hold in this area that straddles the Canadian provinces of Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba. Payette said the sites he has studied have warmed by 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) in the last two decades.

"This is the end of the line for permafrost," Payette said.

The trend cannot be conclusively linked to climate change, Payette said, citing a lack of data in this remote area, but he noted that this is the most likely cause. The research was published in the journal Permafrost and Periglacial Processes.

The ability to figure out what happens when permafrost vanishes is important because of its possible impact on climate change. Canada's Environment Minister, Jim Prentice was completely silent on the issue of melting permafrost at the recent Copenhagen Climate Summit. He spoke however, of the quantity of petroleum reserves Canada has to offer the world.

Arctic emissions of climate-warming methane rose 30.6 percent from 2003 to 2007, researchers reported last month in the journal Science, a suggestion that global warming could unlock huge amounts of the gas from melting permafrost.

While too early to consider this a trend, this increase was the biggest percentage rise for any region of the world's wetlands, the Science study found. Methane has about 21 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, according to the International Emissions Trading Association.